Craig Breslow has key decision looming as Red Sox face outfield logjam
This week’s GM Meetings mark the unofficial start of the MLB offseason, providing a forum for every club’s top decision-makers to get together in Las Vegas, discuss their needs and lay the groundwork for future deals.
For Red Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow, that will likely mean plenty of conversations involving his outfield.
The Red Sox currently have five starting-caliber outfielders in Jarren Duran, Ceddanne Rafaela, Wilyer Abreu, Roman Anthony and Masataka Yoshida, along with just four lineup sports to accommodate them. Injuries kept that from being an issue most of last season, but during the few stretches everyone was healthy the only way Alex Cora could play everyone was by sticking Rafaela, one of the best defensive outfielders in baseball, at second base.
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That is not sustainable over the long haul, so expect Breslow to trade someone from that group over the winter.
Anthony obviously isn’t going anywhere. The Rookie of the Year finalist just signed an eight-year, $130 million extension that should make him the face of the franchise through the rest of the decade and beyond. The club may try to deal away Yoshida, but his contract will complicate those efforts and he’s primarily a designated hitter anyway, so trading him wouldn’t necessarily solve the club’s outfield logjam.
That leaves Duran, Rafaela and Abreu, all of whom could be valuable trade pieces.
Of the three Duran is considered within the game as the most logical trade candidate. He is the oldest of the trio and may have already reached his peak, but he also still has three seasons of club control remaining. He would be an appealing and affordable talent for virtually any big league team, and he’s valuable enough that the Red Sox could use him to help facilitate a larger deal to address one of their biggest needs, ideally a No. 2 starter.
The problem with trading Duran is that he is the best all-around player of the three right now and currently ranks as one of Boston’s best position players. He also has a unique skillset that would be hard to replicate, which would place more pressure on Breslow to make offensive upgrades elsewhere.
If Breslow decides to keep Duran, Abreu could represent an appealing — albeit riskier — alternative.
Abreu is a two-time Gold Glove winner who has already established himself as one of the game’s premier right fielders. With four years of club control remaining the Red Sox could sell him as a potential franchise cornerstone.
The downside to dealing Abreu is that he likely hasn’t reached his full potential, and considering the Red Sox are already power deficient, trading away the club’s second-leading home run hitter could be counterproductive.
Then there is Rafaela.
Rafaela is the youngest of three and has the most unique profile. The 25-year-old just won his first Gold Glove in center field and is already regarded as perhaps the best defensive player in the sport. But offensively Rafaela is incredibly streaky, and though he’s prone to going on some epic heaters, when he starts chasing pitches things can get ugly.
Unlike Duran and Abreu, Rafaela has also signed a long-term extension that will pay him $47.5 million over the next six years. Rafaela will count for $6.25 million annually against the luxury tax, which isn’t much in the grand scheme of things but might limit his market among lower payroll teams.
Even if Rafaela never becomes more than an inconsistent No. 9 hitter at the plate his glove will ensure he remains a valuable contributor for the Red Sox. But given that Duran is also an excellent defensive center fielder who is arguably a better fit there than in left, there could be merit in moving on from Rafaela in an effort to maximize the lineup.
Ultimately having too many good players to keep is a good problem to have, because whichever outfielder the club deals could help Breslow address other areas of need on the roster. Either way, when the Red Sox report to Fort Myers for spring training this February, one of last year’s starting outfielders likely won’t be with them.
