For a 3-13 team that has been eliminated from the playoffs for weeks, there’s surprisingly a lot at stake for the Patriots this weekend against the Bills.

Depending on the result of their Week 18 matchup with the Bills, the Patriots could pick anywhere from first to fourth overall in the 2025 NFL Draft.

Patriots brass has said that rookie quarterback Drake Maye, who has been limited with a right hand injury, is expected to start Sunday against the Bills. Head coach Jerod Mayo and offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt both said the Patriots are playing to win against the Bills. Van Pelt said the intention is for Maye to play the entire game, depending on how it’s going.

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Van Pelt did remain open to the possibility that rookie sixth-round pick Joe Milton III could get into the game at quarterback. Milton took his first first-team reps of the season in practice this week. That indicates that Milton could serve as Maye’s backup over Jacoby Brissett.

Complicating factors is that the Bills have nothing to play for, since they’ve locked up the No. 2 seed in the AFC playoffs, so they’re expecting to play backups.

If the Bills were going all-in, then the Patriots would almost surely lose. It’s still possible that Patriots starters could lose to Bills backups, but it’s certainly no guarantee.

If the Patriots want to lock up the No. 1 seed, their easiest path is to lose to the Bills. Tanking does not seem to be in the team’s plans, even though it would be most beneficial for the future of the team. Losing while intending to lose would also ultimately look better for Mayo than losing with the intention to win.

Here’s where the Patriots will pick in the draft based on a number of different situations.

If the Patriots lose

If the Patriots lose to the Bills, they lock up the No. 1 seed in the 2025 NFL Draft. It’s that simple.

They’re currently tied with a 3-13 record with three other teams but have a lower strength of schedule (.467) than the Titans (.515), Browns (.540) and Giants (.551).

So much for the Patriots playing a difficult schedule in 2024. They have no excuse for their record given the quality of teams they’ve faced.

Even though the Patriots are set to take on the Bills’ backups, they’re still 2.5-point underdogs at home. So, Vegas considers this the most likely scenario.

If the Patriots win or tie, Titans, Browns, Giants lose

In this scenario, if the Patriots finish with a 4-13 or 3-13-1 record and the Titans, Browns and Giants all finish 3-14, then the Patriots will pick fourth overall in the 2025 NFL Draft. The Jaguars, who are 4-12, have a .474 strength of schedule. If every team the Patriots need to lose to finish with a lower strength of schedule, win, they’ll finish with a .500 strength of schedule (136 total wins). If every team the Jaguars need to lose to finish with a lower strength of schedule, lose, they’ll finish with a .504 strength of schedule (137 total wins). So, if the Jaguars lose, they should not be able to pass the Patriots for the fourth overall pick if both teams finish 4-13.

It would be a pretty precipitous drop from first, since it’s unlikely any team would give up a massive haul to move up to fourth overall.

The Titans are actually 1.5-point favorites over the Texans, since Houston is locked into the No. 4 seed. The Browns are 20-point underdogs to the Ravens on Saturday, since Baltimore is still fighting for the AFC North title. The Giants are 3-point underdogs to the Eagles, even though the Eagles are expected to rest starters.

If the Patriots win or tie, one of Titans, Browns, Giants win

If the Patriots win or tie and two out of three of the Titans, Browns and Giants lose, then the Patriots will finish with the third overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. Another unideal situation, since it seems, at most, only two quarterbacks are currently worthy of top picks.

Based on Vegas odds, the Titans are the most likely team to win this weekend.

If the Patriots win or tie, one of Titans, Browns, Giants lose

If the Patriots win or tie and two of the Titans, Browns and Giants win, then the Pats will finish with the second overall pick. This isn’t a likely scenario, but the Bills, Texans and Eagles all could lose since they have nothing to play for.

If the Patriots, Titans, Browns and Giants all win

If all four teams who are currently 3-13 win, then the Patriots will finish with the first overall pick.

Even in the scenario where the Patriots, Titans, Browns and Giants all win and all five 4-12 teams lose, the Patriots should still have the lowest strength of schedule of all 4-13 teams.