It all comes down to this, one final week of the season to decide the Twins’ postseason fate.

While the Twins’ odds to make the postseason at one point were around 95 percent, they now sit at 54.5 percent with six games left to play after a disastrous road trip to Cleveland and Boston during which they went 2-5.

The Twins currently sit a game behind the Kansas City Royals and Detroit Tigers, on the outside of the playoff picture for the first time since the early months of the season. They have a one-game lead on the Seattle Mariners. When all is said and done, two of those four teams will head to the postseason, nabbing the final two American League wild-card spots.

The Twins, Tigers and Royals were idle on Monday, while the Mariners played the Houston Astros.

“We’re going to try to make the best of (the) day off, come back fresh, ready to go with some enthusiasm,” Twins manager Rocco Baldelli said. “Our guys want it. They want what’s in front of them.”

With one week left in the regular season, here’s what you need to know:

What does the schedule look like?

After an off day Monday, the Twins finish off their regular season with a six-game homestand, playing host to the Miami Marlins and Baltimore Orioles.

The Marlins enter the series with the worst record in the National League and these three games should offer the Twins an opportunity to pick up some ground in the playoff race. The Twins will send Bailey Ober, Simeon Woods Richardson and David Festa to the mound against the Marlins.

They then finish off their regular season with three games against the Orioles, who at this point look to be locked into the first AL wild-card berth. With nothing expected to be on the line for them, the Orioles could opt to rest some of their regulars to prepare for the postseason. The second game of that series, Saturday night, was picked up by FOX on Monday and will be televised nationally, shifting the game time from 1:10 p.m. to 6:15 p.m.

The Tigers, meanwhile, end their season with a six-game homestand against the Tampa Bay Rays (78-78) and Chicago White Sox (36-120), who are perhaps the worst team in the modern era, which means the Tigers should have a good opportunity in front of them next weekend.

The Royals, who are on a seven-game slide, finish off their schedule at Washington (69-87) and then head to Atlanta (85-71) for a series that could have playoff implications for both teams.

The Mariners began a series against Houston, the AL West division leaders, on Monday, have an off day on Thursday and then finish their season against the Oakland Athletics (67-89) at home.

How is the tiebreaker decided?

The Twins needed 163 games to decide the AL Central division in both 2008 and 2009.

When the Twins and Tigers met in 2009, it was a 12-inning thriller, decided when Alexi Casilla’s single plated Carlos Gómez, sending the Twins to the playoffs.

“It was as intense as you can get because you know if you lose, you’re going home,” remembered Justin Morneau, who was on both the 2008 and ’09 Twins teams. “You’re hanging on every pitch. It’s unlike any baseball series you have where everything all year is two games, three games, four games and then, all of a sudden, it’s one game for everything.”

But the excitement of the win-or-go-home Game 163 has been replaced by a new tiebreaker system, implemented after the 2021 season where ties are now determined by head-to-head records.

Who holds the tiebreaker?

The Twins.

In all potential situations.

If you’re looking for a glimmer of hope as a Twins fan, this is it. Holding the tiebreaker means the Twins need to gain just one game over either AL Central foe in the next week.

The Twins went 7-6 this season against both the Tigers and Royals. They went 5-2 against the Mariners. That means that in a two-way tie or three-way tie (or the even unlikelier event of a four-way tie), they have the advantage.

Who would the Twins play if they made the playoffs?

The team that wins the second wild card is almost assuredly headed to Baltimore to take on the Orioles in the best-of-three Wild Card Series.

The team that wins the third wild card will likely face the Astros, who have not clinched the AL West but are unlikely to be caught by the Mariners. They’re also unlikely to catch the Cleveland Guardians to receive a first-round bye. That would also be a best-of-three Wild Card Series and would be contested entirely in Houston.

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