Red Sox getting head start on key offseason decisions

This past weekend the Red Sox promoted Zach Penrod, paying off one of the coolest rags to riches baseball stories we’ve seen in a long time. How often do you see a guy from Idaho who played Division 2 college baseball, had Tommy John surgery and toiled for three years of indy ball in Big Sky country make it to the majors?

It’s a remarkable achievement, and one Penrod earned by transforming himself into an overpowering left-hander with dominant stuff. It’s also a credit to the Red Sox scouting and development groups, who identified Penrod as a potential diamond in the rough early and now see him as part of the club’s future.

The timing of his call-up was no coincidence, either.

With Boston’s playoff hopes hanging on by a thread, the Red Sox have gotten a head start on preparing for this offseason’s Rule 5 Draft. For those unfamiliar, the Rule 5 Draft is a mechanism by which clubs can poach certain minor leaguers who are not on a 40-man roster from other organizations, specifically those who have played four or five professional seasons depending on how old they were at signing.

Garrett Whitlock and Justin Slaten are recent Rule 5 success stories, and with dozens of Red Sox minor leaguers eligible for this offseason’s draft, the club has been proactive in ensuring its top prospects are protected while maximizing the value of those it was prepared to lose.

Penrod is the latest Rule 5-eligible prospect the Red Sox have promoted, joining recent call-ups Richard Fitts, Luis Guerrero and Chase Shugart, all right-handed pitchers. All four would have needed to be added to the 40-man roster by Nov. 19, so by promoting them in-season the Red Sox are getting a head start on necessary roster management while giving the prospects a taste of the majors.

That roster maneuvering has been ongoing all season, particularly around the trade deadline.

Five of the 10 prospects the Red Sox traded at the deadline were Rule 5-eligible this offseason, so by moving them early the club was able to get something in return rather than risk losing them for nothing.

Second baseman Nick Yorke, a former first-round pick whose path to the majors was blocked, was flipped for fellow former first-rounder Quinn Priester, a right-hander who ranks among the most promising young pitchers in Boston’s system. Right-hander Ryan Zeferjahn, first baseman Niko Kavadas and outfielder Matthew Lugo were all sent to the Angels as part of the Luis Garcia trade, and infielder Eddinson Paulino to the Blue Jays as part of the Danny Jansen deal.

Had they stuck around the Red Sox likely would have only protected Yorke and maybe Zeferjahn, but doing so would have meant using a 40-man spot on someone the club didn’t see as part of the long-term vision at the expense of someone else it does.

Even with all these recent moves, the Red Sox still have a couple of decisions to make this offseason.

Boston has five Rule 5-eligible minor leaguers who are considered Top 30 prospects by both MLB Pipeline and SoxProspects.com, those being outfielders Jhostynxon Garcia and Allan Castro, infielder Blaze Jordan and right-handers Hunter Dobbins and Yordanny Monegro. Of this group Dobbins is the most likely candidate to be added to the 40-man.

The 25-year-old was recently promoted to Triple-A and has been one of Boston’s most consistent minor league starters over the last two years. This season Dobbins has a 3.21 ERA over 120.2 innings in 24 starts, and since joining the WooSox he’s allowed three or fewer runs in each of his first three starts. He’ll be one of Boston’s top depth starters next season and someone who could come up and make an emergency spot start or two in a pinch.

He would also almost certainly be taken if left unprotected, which may not be the case for the others.

Garcia, Castro and Monegro, though undeniably talented, are only 21 years old and still haven’t proven themselves at Double-A. Monegro hasn’t even pitched above High-A yet. Jordan, also 21, has at least established himself at the Double-A level but his game also needs a lot of seasoning. There’s no way any of them would stick on a major league roster for an entire season, so even if they were selected there’s a high likelihood they’d be returned to the Red Sox at some point next year.

There are also two others who may warrant consideration, right-handers Michael Fulmer and Wyatt Mills.

Fulmer is not a prospect, but rather a seven-year MLB veteran who has sat out the entire 2024 season recovering from UCL revision surgery in his right elbow. The 31-year-old won American League Rookie of the Year honors in 2016 and was an All-Star in 2017 with the Detroit Tigers, but he underwent Tommy John surgery in 2019 and eventually moved to the bullpen. He signed a two-year minor league deal with Boston this past spring and could conceivably compete for a bullpen spot out of camp next season, but if not added to the 40-man another team could wind up snatching him up for themselves.

Mills is in a similar boat. Acquired in exchange for Methuen’s Jacob Wallace before the 2023 season, Mills was a candidate to earn a bullpen role before going down with an elbow injury that eventually required Tommy John surgery. He hasn’t pitched since, but like Fulmer he signed a two-year minor league deal prior to this season and could factor into the equation in 2025.

Both are progressing in their respective rehab work and Mills has even begun throwing live batting practice, per a Red Sox source. Given how much bullpen help Boston needs it would make sense to keep both around, but the club will have to weigh their prognoses with other roster considerations before ultimately deciding who it needs to keep and who it can live with losing if left exposed.

Campbell shut down

The Red Sox placed infield prospect Kristian Campbell on the 7-day injured list Tuesday with a left lat strain, ending one of the most successful seasons by any minor league player in baseball this year.

Selected in the fourth round of the 2023 MLB Draft with the compensatory pick acquired after losing Xander Bogaerts in free agency, Campbell enjoyed a monster year in his first professional season, jumping from High-A all the way to Triple-A while emerging as a Top 25 prospect in all of baseball. The Georgia Tech product batted .330 with 20 home runs, 77 RBI, 24 stolen bases and a .997 OPS across all levels, and following his promotion to Worcester he posted an .898 OPS in 19 games.

The 22-year-old now ranks as MLB’s No. 24 prospect according to Baseball America and could be a contender to make Boston’s Opening Day roster in 2025.

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