Amy Lindgren

Are we headed for a tight job market? Are we in one now?

Although we’ll need the magic of hindsight to find out, we do have data to help direct us in the meantime.

For example, as a nation we’re holding steady with the unemployment rate, which is low (4.3%). We’re also continuing to add jobs (89,000 in July and 142,000 in August), and employers are generally stating they are not planning any major layoffs.

Those are good indicators of a healthy job market. But there’s always another side to the coin. In this case, it relates to employer hesitation in adding workers.

For example, although we’re gaining jobs, the pace of that growth has slowed. Likewise, the number of postings has declined and the length of time between interviews and offers seems to be inching up again.

Reasons for slowing down would naturally vary from employer to employer but there are shared concerns around common issues. Inflation, the likely (but uncertain) interest rate cuts anticipated for the coming year, and the presidential election could all contribute to slowing or even stopping the hiring process for employers.

These are normal responses to uncertainty and not necessarily concerning. But if you’re a job seeker who still thinks it’s a hot market for workers, you’ll want to adjust your thinking.

The following tips will provide a throw-back reminder of what to do when the job market is less accommodating than it has been in the recent past.

If you’re working now

1. Delay a job change. Unless your position is miserable or on the verge of collapse, give yourself a few months or at least until after the election before making any moves.

2. Consider cross-training. You won’t become invaluable or impervious to layoff, but being able to switch departments could buffer you if your employer hits a rough patch.

3. Find an internal mentor. Having another perspective can be invaluable in any circumstance, but especially so if your workplace starts to wobble.

If you’re job seeking now

4. Review your job goal. Have you been shooting for something a couple of levels higher than your past position? Remember that employers might be more risk-averse, wanting certainty that someone can handle the job without much of an on-ramp.

5. Freshen your dates. Being unemployed for months or even years isn’t necessarily a problem, but showing nothing to indicate added value since your last job could be. Internships, certifications, part-time jobs and side hustles in the field would be the gold standard, but even an online class can demonstrate refreshed skills and commitment to the related work.

6. Don’t over-rely on postings. The tighter the job market, the less likely an employer will broadly advertise an opening — or advertise at all. It’s a matter of not wanting to be inundated with responses, and perhaps of not needing to market when candidates might already be knocking on the door. Not seeing a posting doesn’t mean there’s not an opening. To reverse the process, create a list of places you’d like to work, then reach out to department managers or current employees to ask about future hiring plans.

Whether or not you’re working or job seeking now

7. Increase your savings. This is obviously easier for someone with a paycheck, so the application of this step will be varied. But any steps you can take to set aside money or reduce expenses will help if the job market does contract.

8. Increase your networking. Regardless of what’s happening in the broader economy, the fastest and most certain way into a job has always been through contacts and friends. To increase your networking, you might actively connect with new people or simply re-connect with those you already know. Then, if something does happen, everyone in that circle of connections will have better options for recovering, including you.

9. Get involved in something. If you’re on a job-family-sleep-job schedule, it might seem difficult to wedge something else in. Even so, having a class or volunteer role or even a hobby such as a biking club can provide the “extra” employers like to see in their candidates; it can also provide another pool of networking relationships. These benefits are even more true for job seekers who are currently unemployed.

Will you need these tips for a tight job market? Because the economy is cyclical, the answer is almost certainly yes. We just don’t know when they might be needed, which is why it’s good to know about them now.

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Amy Lindgren owns a career consulting firm in St. Paul. She can be reached at alindgren@prototypecareerservice.com.