Heading into the trade deadline the Red Sox had every reason to believe a playoff spot was within reach. The club sat just 1.5 games below the postseason cutline on the morning of July 30, so the Red Sox opted to buy at the deadline, bringing in reinforcements to help shore up their weaknesses and set the club up for a strong finish.

Five weeks later, things obviously haven’t worked out.

Over the past month-plus since the deadline the Red Sox have gone 15-20 entering Saturday and have fallen out of the American League Wild Card picture. They’re now once again hovering around .500, and the trade deadline additions who were supposed to help put the Red Sox over the top have collectively failed to deliver.

Prior to the deadline the Red Sox made five moves, four of which were primarily intended to bolster the big league roster. The club brought back left-hander James Paxton, acquired right-handed relievers Lucas Sims and Luis Garcia, and traded for catcher Danny Jansen to help add another right-handed bat to balance the lineup.

The fifth deal, in which the Red Sox swapped former first-round infielder Nick Yorke for former first-round pitcher Quinn Priester, was always made with an eye towards the future.

Paxton, who had been inconsistent but available through his first half-season in Los Angeles, only made it five pitches into his third start with the Red Sox before he suffered a partially torn calf that will probably sideline him for the rest of the season. He ultimately posted a 4.09 ERA in just 11 innings in his second stint with the team.

The two most urgent additions, Sims and Garcia, wound up being catastrophic misses. Sims allowed nine earned runs in 10 innings with the Red Sox, and Garcia allowed 13 earned runs in 11.1 innings. Both are now on the injured list, and their inability to stabilize the club’s teetering bullpen played a sizable role in the club’s second-half collapse.

Jansen, meanwhile, hasn’t contributed much at the plate. As of this writing he’s only batting .207 with two home runs and a .592 OPS in 20 games, and his splits against left-handed pitchers aren’t anything special.

It’s impossible to know how another player would have performed had they come to Boston instead, but with the benefit of hindsight it’s clear there are a few guys the Red Sox could have landed who may have helped keep the club in the hunt. Relievers Jason Adam (0.54 ERA, 16.2 innings) and A.J. Puk (0.56, 16.0) have been terrific since being traded to the Padres and Diamondbacks, respectively. They each look set to pitch big innings this October.

Same goes for new Orioles righty Zach Eflin (1.95, 32.0) and Houston lefty Yusei Kikuchi (2.57, 35.0), who have proven more than worth the hefty prices their new teams paid to land them.

It’s tempting to look at all this and conclude the Red Sox went about things the wrong way or shouldn’t have bought in the first place, but the truth is more complicated. Boston hadn’t gotten anywhere by standing pat or by trying to buy and sell at the same time, so Craig Breslow’s decision to pick a lane, commit and actually offload prospects in an effort to improve the major league club was commendable.

The Red Sox were right to buy, and the moves didn’t work out. Both of those things can be true, and unfortunately the club is looking at a worst-case outcome.

Don’t expect huge changes

Now that the Red Sox likely won’t make the playoffs, we may as well look ahead to the offseason and what the future might hold.

Long story short, the Red Sox could be much better next year, but we probably aren’t looking at a major overhaul.

Over the past five years the Red Sox have been committed to a long-term rebuild, and one positive that’s come out of this season is many of the club’s young players have taken important steps forward. Jarren Duran has established himself as an All-Star and among the best all-around players in the league and Tanner Houck has shown he can be an anchor of the rotation. Brayan Bello has also shown flashes, Ceddanne Rafaela will be a candidate for both a Gold Glove and American League Rookie of the Year, and Wilyer Abreu has impressed in his first full season as a big leaguer.

That’s to say nothing of the progress made by Boston’s top prospects, four of whom are now in Triple-A and rank among the top 30 in all of baseball.

The Red Sox have built an impressive foundation, but there is still more work to be done.

Next season’s lineup shouldn’t be much different. Triston Casas and Rafael Devers are locked into the corner infield spots and Trevor Story will provide a boost if he can stay healthy. Duran, Rafaela and Abreu will factor heavily into the outfield picture, and barring any offseason moves Masataka Yoshida will remain as well. The only obvious hole — second base — will be filled internally, either by Vaughn Grissom, David Hamilton or one of Boston’s top prospects, ideally Marcelo Mayer or Kristian Campbell. Kyle Teel is also a logical option at catcher to pair with Connor Wong, and anyone else the Red Sox bring in as a short-term bridge won’t be someone who’d block him once he’s ready.

Story will once again be the big addition to the lineup, at least in theory, and any other big upgrades would involve subtracting somewhere else. Free agents Tyler O’Neill and Danny Jansen are also unlikely to return — they should be seeking multi-year deals that wouldn’t make sense for Boston, who have internal replacements waiting in the wings — and we shouldn’t discount the possibility that Roman Anthony, now the No. 2 ranked prospect in all of baseball, could force his way into the outfield picture next spring as well.

The pitching staff is another story, with the bullpen in particular an area that could see significant turnover. But ultimately Boston’s success in 2025 will be determined primarily by its starting rotation, and that’s the area where the Red Sox face their biggest decisions.

Will Pivetta return?

Of the eight Red Sox players who are due to hit free agency, the most consequential is right-hander Nick Pivetta. The 31-year-old has been Boston’s most reliable innings-eater since he arrived in 2020 and in recent years has evolved into a strikeout machine, but he’s also been frustratingly inconsistent.

A case could be made for the Red Sox bringing Pivetta back on a multi-year deal, but should they?

If Pivetta returns, and assuming James Paxton walks, next year’s starting rotation will be more or less the same as this year’s, only with a healthy Lucas Giolito back in the fold. Houck, Giolito, Bello, Pivetta and Kutter Crawford is a solid five-man group, especially if the young guys continue to progress and Giolito rediscovers his 2019-21 form. But the Red Sox could also aim higher, and if they let Pivetta walk it would open up the possibility of adding someone who could really raise this group’s ceiling.

How Boston addresses its starting rotation will be the biggest single decision the club faces this offseason, but the bullpen may be the most comprehensive project. Closer Kenley Jansen, set-up man Chris Martin and trade deadline acquisitions Lucas Sims and Luis Garcia are all pending free agents. Jansen is probably as good as gone, and the others are a coin flip at best to return.

Where does that leave the Red Sox? Liam Hendriks is the top candidate to slot into the closer spot and Justin Slaten has shown he can handle high-leverage situations. Zack Kelly will presumably remain in the mix, but after that it’s a lot of guys who have moved back and forth from Worcester recently, including Brennan Bernardino, Greg Weissert, Cam Booser and Josh Winckowski; others looking to bounce back from injury, like Garrett Whitlock and Chris Murphy; and fresh call-ups like Chase Shugart and Luis Guerrero.

That’s too much volatility, so whether it’s re-signing their own free agents or bringing in outside reinforcements, the Red Sox need to sign two or three relievers to make sure the bullpen is on solid footing.

Who could Sox add?

The jewel of this year’s free agent class is outfielder Juan Soto, who is likely to become the second player in MLB history to eclipse the $500 million mark this winter. He would be a transformational acquisition for the Red Sox, but given the price tag and the club’s recent history, fans probably shouldn’t hold their breath.

If the Red Sox make a significant signing this offseason, it will be for a starting pitcher.

Baltimore’s Corbin Burnes and Atlanta’s Max Fried are expected to be among the top arms on the market, and either one would immediately slot in at the top of Boston’s rotation. Burnes in particular would be a boon, because not only is he a former Cy Young Award winner, but signing him would also weaken a top division rival.

As far as bullpen candidates, Jansen will be the biggest name on what should be a robust reliever market. Others who could be available include Ryan Pressly, Carlos Estevez, David Robertson and Paul Sewald, all of whom have recent closer experience, as well as Kendall Graveman, who should return next year after missing all of 2024 due to shoulder surgery.

The top bats expected to hit free agency this winter beyond Soto include first basemen Paul Goldschmidt and Pete Alonso, third baseman Alex Bregman and shortstop Willy Adames. None would be obvious fits given Boston’s projected 2025 roster, tantalizing as it may be to imagine Alonso crushing balls over the Green Monster in a Red Sox uniform.

Given how the last few years have gone it would be fair for fans to be jaded at this point. Outside of 2021 the Red Sox have been consistently “meh” since 2019, and last offseason ownership lowered payroll and basically sat out free agency. Breslow’s willingness to swing trades has been encouraging, and maybe with the progress shown by the club’s young players John Henry and Co. will be more willing to loosen the purse strings this winter.

One can only hope, because after three straight middling campaigns something’s got to give. The Red Sox have been stuck in neutral for long enough.