OBF: For Pats, it’s ‘On to uncertainty’

Happy NFL New Year.

Once upon a time, the NFL season began with banners unfurling in Foxboro.

Tonight, we’ll get Taylor Swift, 14 Kelce brothers, Patrick Mahomes, and more incessant comparisons between the Kansas City QB and Tom Brady.

The New England Patriots, meanwhile, are “on to Cincinnati.”

They begin their 65th season Sunday at 1 p.m. along the Ohio River in a place called Paycor Stadium as 8.5-point underdogs.

Pete Rose will throw out the ceremonial first parlay.

Gone is the gruff swagger that once accompanied that famous geographic quote.

And the coach who famously uttered it following a debacle at Kansas City 10 years ago.

Along with expectations of a January playoff run and a February Duck Boat parade.

Patriots postseason victories are now precious antiques.

An entire generation was raised in New England knowing the Patriots as Super Bowl champions, at least once.

Their younger siblings and cousins now cannot recall a time when the Patriots won a playoff game.

This season, 65 is the new 1965.

As in, “The Patriots haven’t been boring since 1965.”

The Patriots kick off on Sunday 1 p.m in 10 of 11 games played in the Eastern or Central Time Zones. They also have a 9:30 a.m. Eastern start in England.

Plenty of time for any 65-year-old to catch the early-bird special after a late-game loss.

This season, the only spike of the dynastic triad remaining in Foxboro is 83-year-old Robert Kraft.

You can’t miss Bill Belichick. Turn on your favorite screen. He’ll be there.

A season-long infomercial for his next coaching gig.

Mike McCarthy, Brian Daboll, and Nick Sirianni are on the clock.

Meanwhile, Tom Brady is poised to shock the world as a Fox analyst.

How much of a deal was Brady as a QB?

Over his final nine seasons in New England, Brady’s salary ate up an average 9.945% of the teams allotted cap space, via Spotrac data.

Find a better deal anywhere in pro sports. Good luck.

During that span, the Patriots won 3 Super Bowls and went to the AFC Championship Game 8 straight times.

Since Patrick Mahomes signed his then-record extension in 2020, his salary has consumed 16.26% of the Chiefs’ cap space. Not bad for 2 Super Bowl rings.

Speaking of “cash to burn,” the Cardinals carry Kyler Murray’s $49,118,177 cap hit this season. That’s 19.23% of their space. Dak Prescott got his bag. He carries a whopping $55,132,647 cap hit, or 21.59% of the Cowboys available space.

Aaron Rodgers gave the Jets a deal. His $17.161 million hit takes 6.73% of their 2024 cap space.

The Dolphins have the best bargain of all this season. QB Tua Tagovailoa’s salary covers just 3.83% of Miami’s cap space. But next season, his new deal is projected to devour 21.75%.

No financial stat poured a deeper foundation for “The Dynasty” than the Brady Discount. It allowed Kraft to make Belichick the highest-paid coach in the NFL.

While the money spent on Belichick counted in Team Kraft’s budget, it mattered nothing to the cap. The CBA forces teams to spend at least 95% of the cap over a four-year period. If a team misses that number, the difference is paid to players on the team during that period.

Hardly the same as spending on players in real time.

Or to 100% of the cap.

The last time the Patriots won a Super Bowl, Brady’s salary represented 12.42% of the team’s cap space. That was lower than the cap percentage taken that same season (2018) by Joe Flacco (BAL), Russell Wilson (SEA), Ben Roethlisberger (PIT), Drew Brees (NO), Kirk Cousins (MIN), Derek Carr (LV), Andrew Luck (IND), and Matthew Stafford (DET).

The Patriots ranked 23rd in cash spending that season. Thanks in part to the Brady Discount.

They spiked to 11th in 2019 – Brady’s last season in New England. His salary hit its New England peak at $23 million.

In the past five seasons through 2024, the Patriots have ranked on average 20th in NFL cash spending. According to my Arlington Public School math, that places them behind 62.5% of the teams in the league.

To paraphrase John Henry: “It’s expensive to have football players. Especially when the greatest player of all time isn’t winning Super Bowl trophies at a discount.”

The metamorphosing of Kraft into a more likable version of Henry is a troubling trend.

Henry has shown how a team owner in Boston can make money without spending it on players who are playing.

Has Kraft been paying attention?

Be afraid. Very afraid.

This year, he makes the final installment payment on Belichick.

Otherwise, his Patriots offer a roster that is part Dollar General, part Sam’s Club, and part Building 19 (rest in peace).

Nice-Guy RKK reportedly is paying Christian Barmore’s full salary of $1.8 million even though he on the Non-Football Injury List.

Still, that’s just 5.6% of the team’s $36,149,807 available cap space (via Spotrac).

And money paid to those on the NFI list counts against the cap.

Of course, the cap is fungible. And cash spending is still king. But $36 million in funny money worth of offensive linemen or wideouts wouldn’t hurt.

QB Jacoby Brissett is the best example of “You Get What You Pay For.” His $7.88 million cap hit covers 3.09% of the Patriots space.

Rookie QB Drake Maye sparkled in the preseason. But are we looking at cubic zirconia? Or a 5-carat gem from the vault at Harry Winston?

Check back at Thanksgiving. Or Christmas. Or in 2025.

Perhaps by then, the Patriots might be suitable for viewers of all ages.

And be on TV after sundown.

Bill Speros (@RealOBF and @BillSperos on X) can be reached at bsperos1@gmail.com.

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