Conroy: Jeremy Swayman deal will get done. But how soon?
The Bruins are three weeks away from the start of training camp and Jeremy Swayman still does not have a contract.
Is it time for B’s fans to be concerned?
Not yet. Will there be a time for white knuckles in this negotiation? Probably. That is how these deals get often done. But the question is how soon will it get completed.
There’s still some optimism here that a deal will get done in a timely fashion. That it’s not done already is not surprising. At this stage, it makes no sense for Swayman’s camp to give up the pressure point of the pending training camp in a few weeks. That helped to get a contract done for David Pastrnak when the budding superstar was a restricted free agent in 2017 and the then-21-year-old Pastrnak signed a six-year extension for an annual salary of $6.666 million on Sept. 14 of that year.
So there’s at least some comforting history there for B’s fans who desire a calm, peaceful last few weeks of summer.
Still, the deal has to get pushed over the goal line. And what will the final number be? It will be high, perhaps higher than many fans think the 25-year-old goaltender has earned. The speculation here is that it will fall somewhere between Predator goalie Juuse Saros’ recently signed eight-year extension that carries a $7.74 million AAV and the Lightning’s Andre Vasilevskiy’s deal that carries a $9.5 million cap hit.
The bet here is the landing spot will be – if it’s a max term eight-year deal – somewhere in the middle, which would take up almost all of their $8.6 million in cap space per puckpedia.com. (If the player chooses to bet on himself on a shorter deal that would take him into unrestricted free agency before he’s 30, the AAV would be lower but there’s inherent risk in that route).
That seems like an awful lot for a player whose high-water mark for games played is 44 last season and who has won just one playoff series. But if the team truly believes in a player – and the fact that the B’s were determined to move on from a Vezina Trophy winner in Linus Ullmark says they do – then the timing of this deal dictates the club takes something of a leap of faith.
Considering Swayman has a career mark of 79-33-15 with a .919 save percentage and 2.34 goals against average, that leap they have to make won’t be over the Grand Canyon. More like the Muddy River at the end of a dry summer. But it’s a leap nonetheless. That’s what it takes sometimes. When Vasilevskiy signed his current deal, he had just won the Vezina. But he and the Lightning had also just suffered a brutal first-round sweep at the hands of the Columbus Blue Jackets. It didn’t matter. The Bolts signed the goalie to the whopper contract and they won the next two Stanley Cups, with Vasilevskiy taking home the Conn Smythe Trophy in 2021. It paid off for both sides.
There is incentive for both sides to get this done before or early in camp.
From the Bruins’ perspective, their MO the past couple of years has been to be ready to hit the ground running when camp begins, get off to good starts, and carry that into favorable playoff seeding. They haven’t taken the best advantage of that once the playoffs start, but having home ice for Game 7 against the Maple Leafs has always been helpful
Should this negotiation drag out into the season, the B’s have a contingency plan with the Joonas Korpisalo, obtained in the Ullmark deal, and Brandon Bussi. That is not close to a best-case scenario, however. GM Don Sweeney will want his No. 1 goalie, one who will be taking on a workload he’s never experienced before, ready to go at the start of camp, especially after he dedicated millions to Elias Lindholm and Nikita Zadorov in a summer retool.
It would behoove Swayman to come in on time, too. Once camps commence, it will be tough to find NHL-caliber shooters with whom to work out. Not only would he want to be sharp for the B’s when they open up against the Stanley Cup champion Panthers in Florida on Oct. 8, but there is also the Four Nations tournament in which he’ll no doubt want to participate. With the likes of Thatcher Demko and Jake Oettinger vying for the American net, falling behind would not be optimal for Swayman.
So logic says this will get done in a timely fashion. But logic, of course, also said that the two sides could have and should have come to an agreement before the goalie took the B’s to arbitration last summer, a process that Swayman – like many players before him – found distasteful.
On top of that, fretful B’s fans also like to point out that Swayman’s agent Lewis Gross also represents Toronto’s William Nylander, who in 2018 did not come to terms with the Leafs until the deadline of Dec. 1. Nylander, now a premier offensive threat in the NHL, then went on to have his worst season as a pro (7-20-27 in 54 games).
On the other hand, Swayman has given every indication that he loves Boston and doesn’t want to play anywhere else. He’s spent most of the summer here, working out with teammates. And the B’s clearly want him. Not only does he hold Vezina-level promise, Swayman is one of the rare draft-and-develop goaltender success stories for the franchise.
When there’s mutual interest to get a deal completed, it usually does. How many bumps the two sides hit along the way remains to be seen.