If you hold the Minnesota State Fair, Minnesotans will come — no matter the weather.

If it rains, fairgoers will show up with umbrellas and ponchos — or they’ll buy them from vendors. If it’s sunny and hot, some people will purchase parasols and others will wear sunblock. Even if attendees are caught unprepared, they will mostly keep smiling as they huddle in buildings on the Fairgrounds or under the awnings to wait out the rain. Some beat the heat by planning their visits for later in the day, when they can attend shows at the Grandstand and watch the nightly fireworks.

Still, it’s always good to plan ahead. So, with the imminent start of the 2024 Minnesota State Fair, we asked: What’s the 12-day forecast?

Opening day

Let’s start with Thursday.

“For opening day, we should be OK,” says Ryan Dunleavy, a meteorologist with the Twin Cities office of the National Weather Service.

That’s true especially for early risers (gates open at 7 a.m.), who will likely enjoy the day’s pleasant start, with temperatures eventually climbing to between 75 and 80 degrees.

Later on, there’s potential for showers and thunderstorms.

“But it looks like that should not pester anybody until after the evening activities are wrapped up,” Dunleavy predicted on Tuesday.

Opening weekend

As for the first weekend of the Fair — a popular time to attend — prepare for a stickier and hotter experience.

“The first weekend could be warmer and muggier than opening day,” Dunleavy said.

After a possible rainy start on Friday, the weather service expects clouds to decrease and temperatures to climb into the 80s.

Temperatures could climb into the low 90s by Sunday, with dew points climbing as well.

“Why not add a little tropical flavor to it?” Dunleavy said with a laugh.

If you need to cool off, head to the info booths to check the Fairgrounds map for the closest water and misting locations, the State Fair advises. First aid is also provided by Regions Hospital Emergency Medical Services.

Next week

As for next week, it gets a bit trickier to pin down the forecast this early.

Here’s what we can tell you:

Monday marks the first of two Seniors Days at the Fair — featuring $13 admission for ages 65 and up, among other deals — but Dunleavy says the weather service will need to watch a brewing system to see if it stays put in northwestern Minnesota as currently predicted.

Still, the extended forecast looks pretty good so far.

“Things could change a lot,” Dunleavy said, “but at least for the next eight to 14 days, the Climate Prediction Center is predicting near normal temperatures, right around the 80 to 85 range.”

As for precipitation? That could always happen, but …

“There’s not a big washout in the foreseeable forecast,” Dunleavy said on Tuesday.

Air quality

You might have noticed our hazy skies in the metro — this is due to light wildfire smoke from Canada over most of the state, the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency reported on Tuesday.

While this translated to moderate air quality (yellow category) on Tuesday, improvements are incoming — at least for the start of the Great Minnesota Get-Together.

“High pressure will shift east of the area for Wednesday/Thursday, and increased southerly winds will bring a gradual improvement to air quality,” the MPCA predicts.

People with health concerns should follow the MPCA’s daily forecasting at pca.state.mn.us/air-water-land-climate/air-quality-forecast; you can also sign up for air quality alerts.

“We only produce air quality forecasts out three days,” says David Brown of the MPCA’s Risk Evaluation & Air Modeling Unit, in an email response on Tuesday to the Pioneer Press’ query. “Currently, the forecast for Thursday, the first day of the Fair, is Green or Good. Looking at the long range weather forecast models, we’re pretty confident there won’t be any big weather systems bringing Canadian air and smoke into the state for at least a week from today. That’s the best information we can provide right now.”

Weather history

We can confidently report that no snow accumulation is expected at the 2024 Fair.

“This State Fair will be snow-free, that’s my bold projection,” says Pete Boulay, a climatologist with the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources’ state climatology office, with a laugh.

In fact, Boulay says, there has never been a Minnesota State Fair with any white stuff — beyond the dusting of powdered sugar on those elephant ears, of course.

The public can learn all about weather throughout the State Fair’s history at dnr.state.mn.us/climate/journal/state_fair_weather.html.

While some might remember the extreme heat of 2013 or the 7-inch deluge of 1977, Boulay recalls a different weather fact from State Fair season.

“What stands out for me is a really cold day,” he says. “And the last time we had a cold day at the Fair was in 2021, when we had a high of 64 on Sept. 3.”

Of course, there’s someone who always experiences a cold day at the Fair: Princess Kay of the Milky Way, when she sits in a cooler as an artist sculpts her likeness in butter!

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