On Friday, the Red Sox play their 81st game of the season, marking the official midway point of the 2024 schedule. The season has already featured numerous twists and turns, so how have things worked out, and what’s caught everyone by surprise? The Herald’s Red Sox writers revisit their preseason predictions, discuss the state of the playoff picture, who could be in line for major awards, and how the trade deadline could shape up in the coming weeks.

Gabrielle Starr: I can’t believe we’re already halfway through the 2024 Red Sox season, can you, Mac? Even though the All-Star Game and break divide what we call the ‘first half’ and ‘second half,’ 50% of the schedule is already behind us. But before we get to the current state of affairs, let’s revisit our preseason predictions. I’ve been wrong about the Yankees, but pretty spot-on about the rest of the American League East. You said the Red Sox would stay in the playoff hunt but wouldn’t “have enough to snag the third Wild Card spot,” and they entered Thursday in a tie for it with the Kansas City Royals.

Mac Cerullo: I also said the Tampa Bay Rays and Toronto Blue Jays could slip, which they both have, but what I didn’t expect was that the Texas Rangers and Houston Astros would fall off, too. That’s collectively made a huge impact on the American League playoff picture and it’s certainly helping Boston’s odds. Listen, the Red Sox have been about what I thought they’d be, which is a somewhat improved club that still has a little ways to go, but the road they’ve taken to reach that point has obviously been quite unexpected. They have a real chance, but it’ll be interesting to see if they can keep their recent hot streak going long enough to force the front office’s hand at the trade deadline. How about on the individual award front? It turns out the Red Sox will probably have a young starter earn Cy Young votes, just not the one we expected.

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GS: It’s wild how many teams are at or below .500 at this point in the season, including four-fifths of the AL West. No National League division has more than two teams over .500! On the home front, the Red Sox have certainly been going through some serious growing pains this season, but there’s something exciting about watching homegrown talent begin to figure it out and flourish right in front of your eyes. Seeing how far Tanner Houck has come has been truly something. His rotation spot was never promised, not once; the Red Sox have used him in every possible pitching role since his debut, and he hasn’t shied away from the fact that it was hard at times, trying to develop and build consistency. But first things first: he should be an All-Star. And he’s not the only one…

MC: Jarren Duran should be an All-Star and the fact that he’s only polling 19th among AL outfielders in the fan vote is ridiculous. Connor Wong should be getting more consideration too, and Rafael Devers obviously deserves to go to Globe Life Field; he’s leading MLB third basemen in slugging and OPS. None of them are going to be starters, but all should get a good look from the players and Commissioner’s Office. As far as other awards go, not all of our picks have aged well. Aaron Judge is looking good for AL MVP, but George Kirby hasn’t quite been Cy Young good, Jackson Holliday’s rookie year hasn’t gone as expected, and Devers and Triston Casas aren’t going to sniff the MVP debate. Ceddanne Rafaela won’t be Rookie of the Year either, but he might win a Gold Glove!

GS: Or as Zack Kelly put it to me earlier this week, “It’s ridiculous that Duran is 19th in AL outfielders and he has a top-10 WAR in all of baseball. That’s (expletive).” Entering Thursday, Duran is tied with Juan Soto for fourth in all of MLB in bWAR for position players, and eighth in offensive bWAR. The only players who’ve been more valuable are Gunnar Henderson, Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani. And even though Devers may not be having an MVP-caliber year, he’s certainly diversified his value to the Red Sox: he’s been drawing more walks and his defense has improved significantly, even if, as Alex Cora often says, the numbers don’t back that up. I’m so sick of the fan voting, because it’s all favoritism. Bare minimum, MLB should require players to have played a certain amount of games to qualify for the ballots. What do you think?

MC: I’m fine with the fan vote but it’s just strange how much Duran has flown under the radar. Though if he keeps playing like this, I suppose it’s only a matter of time before that changes. Let’s shift gears a bit though.

Surprise contenders emerge

MC: Obviously it’s still too early to talk about our playoff and World Series picks, but there are plenty of teams nobody thought much of that have emerged as early playoff contenders. Are you impressed by anyone in particular?

GS: In our preseason predictions, I said I wanted to see the Mariners make “a legit playoff run,” and they’re currently running away with their division! I also named the Royals as a team to watch, and they’ve certainly been that; it’s hard to believe this is the same AL Central the Twins won basically by default last year. And not to sound like too much of a homer, but I’m impressed with the Red Sox. They’ve shown a lot of fight and fortitude, and look where they are despite all the injuries; they were 14 games out of first in the division 12 days ago, and they entered Thursday’s off-day only eight back! We can get to the NL in a moment, but what are you seeing for the AL?

MC: The AL Central has been a lot better than anyone expected, and the AL West a lot worse. The Guardians have been awesome, ranking near the top of the sport in both runs scored and runs allowed per game. The Twins have been solid, roughly maintaining their level from last year, but the real shock has been the Royals. I agree that Kansas City had reason for optimism coming in, but I don’t think anyone could have predicted they’d go from 106 losses to real playoff contenders in just one offseason. Even Baltimore, with their treasure trove of young talent, had one in-between year before rising from doormats to dominance.

GS: I think it’s been a weird season around the league in general. The volume and frequency of injuries – especially pitching – has been astounding, and have really turned some teams on their heads. Not to make everything about the Red Sox, but that’s a big reason why their success has been so impressive; they found out they’d be without Lucas Giolito for the year early in spring training, Trevor Story’s and Garrett Whitlock’s seasons each ended within the first 18 games, and they’ve been without Triston Casas and Vaughn Grissom for most of the campaign, yet they’re more than keeping their heads above water. What are you seeing with the NL? Do you think this is the year the Phillies finally topple the Braves?

MC: It sure is trending that way, and maybe we shouldn’t be surprised. The Braves are a great team, but the Phillies are the ones who have stood tall in October each of the past two seasons. Granted both of those clubs have been hit hard by injuries, but we should also acknowledge that Atlanta lost a preseason Cy Young favorite in Spencer Strider and the reigning NL MVP in Ronald Acuña Jr. The thing that’s striking about the NL is how close the Wild Card race is. As of this writing the second- and third-place Wild Card teams (the Cardinals and Padres) and the team with NL’s third-worst record (the Cubs) are separated in the standings by only five games. There are nine teams vying for the last two playoff spots! That’s crazy!

GS: Absolutely. Losing Acuña to another ACL tear was utterly heartbreaking. But I have to say – the many unfortunate, even tragic injuries impacting these NL teams’ various situations aside, because you never want to see that – I love the unexpectedness of a baseball season. Baseball is at its best when it’s chaotic and full of impossibilities becoming possible. I know that’s a very “20th anniversary of 2004” thing for me to say!

Trade talk

GS: So, let’s talk trade deadline. Do we think the Red Sox are buyers this year?

MC: If they keep winning it’s going to be hard to justify selling, even if that’s the direction they’d probably lean, all things being equal. The Red Sox probably aren’t going to go out on a limb, but if they’re still in playoff position and trending upwards by this time next month, they owe it to the players to add, ideally a starting pitcher or a veteran middle infielder. As irritating as this would be, one approach I could see them taking is something similar to the route they took in 2022, when they tried to buy a little while also selling a little. Would anyone be surprised if they traded Kenley Jansen for prospects, activated Liam Hendriks from the IL and installed him as the new closer, and then also went out and traded for someone like Tigers right-hander Jack Flaherty?

GS: I could definitely see them going the 2022 hokey-pokey route, being one foot in, one foot out, but if they keep playing even 75% as well as they’ve been this month, it will be inexcusable for them not to try and add, especially if Casas is back soon and the current roster manages to stay healthy. Not to pull the “This is Boston” card, but this is Boston! You’re THE Red Sox! You can’t have players publicly begging the front office for help before the trade deadline for a third year in a row and not answer the call if their play merits adding. At some point, the Red Sox need to take some real risks. They’ve been saying they’re building towards something ever since they traded Mookie Betts, so build! Adding at the deadline wouldn’t even have to mortgage their future; the farm system is loaded with more infield talent than they know what to do with, so there are definitely some trade chips. There’s also plenty of space under the luxury tax, so taking on another contract or two is very doable. They could even do a sign-and-extend, à la Taylor Glasnow or Nathan Eovaldi, which would be a way of building towards the elusive goal of sustainability and consistent contention. It’s shaping up to be a very interesting summer for the Sox. I’ll close with this: fans are really starting to come around. The energy at Fenway has been incredible, but this is far from solid ground. If the Sox stay in the Wild Card hunt over the next month only to have the front office cut them off at the knees at the deadline, it could get really ugly.

MC: I think the point the Red Sox shouldn’t lose sight of is, they’re in a different spot now than they’ve been the past few years. The young core they’ve been talking about isn’t some far off hypothetical, it’s here. Devers, Duran, Houck, Wong, Casas, Rafaela, Wilyer Abreu, David Hamilton, eventually Grissom, and with Marcelo Mayer, Roman Anthony, Kyle Teel, and many others just beyond the horizon. The club’s glut of mid-tier prospects is crucial too, because there are probably a dozen guys who will be Rule 5 eligible this winter and Boston won’t be able to keep them all. So be selective! Choose who will be a part of the future, then utilize the farm system’s depth to fortify the big-league roster now. If the whole point of the past few years has been to build towards sustainable success, then the club shouldn’t shy away from that success once it’s finally arriving. And if there’s an opportunity to accelerate that timetable? The Red Sox owe it to themselves, and their fans, to take advantage.