Austin FC at Minnesota United: Keys to the match, projected starting XI and a prediction

Minnesota United vs Austin FC

When: 7:30 p.m. CT Saturday

Where: Allianz Field, St. Paul

Stream: Apple TV, MLS Season Pass

Radio: KSTP-AM 1500 ESPN

Weather: 68 degrees, 20 percent chance of rain

Betting line: Minnesota, minus-135; Austin, plus-333, draw plus-300

Series history: The Loons hammered Austin on the road on the season’s opening day, winning 2-1 in a game that was nowhere near that close. In St. Paul, the overall series is even, with both teams having won two games.

Form: Austin (6-7-6, 24 points) is on a five-game winless streak, with two draws and three losses in that span. The Loons (8-5-5, 29 points) have lost two consecutive games and have just one win in their past six matches.

Update: Wil Trapp missed last Saturday’s game for the Loons while waiting for his third child to be born, and then had to fly separately to meet the team in Dallas on Wednesday, after his daughter was born Tuesday. “For me, it’s really just relief that wife and baby are all good. And then now let’s just get back to the season, because it’s a busy week,” Trapp said.

Observation: Loons center back Kervin Arriaga trained with the team on Friday, after missing Wednesday’s game due to what the team called “an internal personnel matter.” Arriaga has been linked with several interested teams in Europe. Most leagues in Europe open their transfer windows on July 1, and will be able to officially bring in new players then.

Projected XI: In a 5-2-3 formation: LW Franco Fragapane, CF Robin Lod, RW Sang Bin Jeong; CM Hassani Dotson, CM Wil Trapp; LWB Joseph Rosales, LCB Miguel Tapias, CB Michael Boxall, RCB Kervin Arriaga, RWB DJ Taylor; GK Clint Irwin

Absences: Dayne St. Clair, Tani Oluwaseyi, Carlos Harvey, and Alejandro Bran (international duty) are away for Copa América. Teemu Pukki (knee), Hugo Bacharach (knee) and Devin Padelford (concussion) are out with injuries.

Storyline: Earlier in the season, first-year Loons coach Eric Ramsay made a point of using as many players as he could, partially to keep the squad integrated, partly to manage minutes. But now, the team is more shorthanded, and Ramsay knows that he’s going to have to ask some players to push through playing three times in eight days.

“It’s not impossible for players to play three games in a week,” Ramsay said. “It happens all the time at the highest level, that is the nature of league sport here. So it’s not an impossible ask for that group of players to go again, and perform really well tomorrow.”

Idea: MLS limits how often its teams can sign players from their MLS NEXT Pro affiliates to short-term contracts. NEXT Pro players can be in the squad for a maximum of four games per season, and can play in a maximum of two games.

It makes sense to not let teams stash extra players with their affiliates, but at the same time, I like a suggestion of a rule change that I got from social media user Brandon Hundt: replacing players who are called up for international duty, or who are out for paternity leave, should be exempted from the limits. There’s no reason that Minnesota, which has been missing between four and eight players for international duty and paternity leave for the past three games, should have to skirt the limits to try to field a full match-day roster.

Scouting report: According to fbref.com, Austin FC has an expected goal differential of minus-13.1 this year, worst in the Western Conference. If not for goalkeeper Brad Stuver, one of the top shot-stoppers in MLS, Austin might be further down the standings.

Prediction: The Loons have struggled this week, but they finally have an entire first-choice back five available. Minnesota gets back into the win column with a 2-0 victory.

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