Business confidence rebounds off steady hiring and predictable inflation
Confidence among the state’s employers bounced back in a big way in May, buoyed by a steady stream of new hires and predictable — if inflated — economic conditions, according to the latest survey by Associated Industries of Massachusetts.
The Association’s Monthly Business Confidence Index showed confidence grew among the Bay State’s employers by a full 1.4 points to 53.3% on the up-side, rebounding “as the state and national economies continued their tenuous expansions” and ending a two month slide toward pessimistic territory.
Massachusetts business owners are feeling better about the state of things after months of stable hiring in the midst of historically low unemployment and, while inflation remains higher than would be ideal, it’s at least been a relatively consistent problem, according to the Index.
“Steady hiring nationally continues to fuel consumer spending. US employers added 2.75 million jobs during the past 12 months, including 272,000 just in May. Payroll employment in Massachusetts also grew 2.2 percent on an annualized basis during the first quarter, just above the national growth rate of 2.0 percent, and well up from the state’s annualized job-growth pace of 0.7 percent in the fourth quarter of 2023,” Sara Johnson, the Chair of the AIM’s Board of Economic Advisors, said with the report’s release.
Despite the optimistic turn among most employers, not every sector is feeling better about the future, according to the survey. Manufacturing companies reported a “significant confidence gap” compared to their non-manufacturer compatriots, coming in at 46% confidence versus 54.7%.
Confidence also varied according to region. Sentiment climbed out of the pessimistic range in the Worcester region, up from 45.9% to 50.6%, but fell dramatically around Springfield, from 48.4% to 44.8%. Confidence among businesses on the North Shore, “remained firmly in optimistic territory” at 55.7%.
Despite the overall increase in business confidence, AIM economic advisory board member Barry Bluestone, a retired Professor of Public Policy and Urban Affairs at Northeastern University, said that the survey also shows that employers are concerned about their ability to hold onto top talent in the face of an ongoing statewide housing crisis.
“The fact that Governor Maura Healey and the Massachusetts House of Representatives have put forward proposals to increase the supply of housing in the Commonwealth is a good sign that elected officials are determined to address this important economic issue,” Bluestone said said.
AIM surveys more than 140 Bay State businesses to produce their monthly index, the first of which was published in July of 1991. According to AIM, business confidence hit historic highs in 1997 and 1998, with two months in either year showing 68.5% confidence, and hit a low in February of 2009, when it was 33.3%.
Seperately Wednesday, government economists released data showing consumer prices excluding volatile food and energy costs — the closely watched “core” index — rose 0.2% from April to May. That was down from 0.3% the previous month and was the smallest increase since October. Measured from a year earlier, core prices climbed 3.4%, below last month’s 3.6% rise, representing the mildest such increase in three years.
Overall inflation also slowed last month, with consumer prices unchanged from April to May. Measured from a year earlier, prices rose 3.3%, less than the 3.6% increase a month earlier.