The unbeaten Austin Prep girls hockey team stood out from over 100 miles away as the clear-cut favorite to take the Div. 1 state title back in 2022. It was much of the same last year for juggernaut St. Mary’s of Lynn, up until Shrewsbury upset it at TD Garden to instead take the crown.

After a wild, roller-coaster of a regular season, we’re seeing exactly what coaches were talking about in December when they said this year’s Div. 1 state tournament would be unlike either of the past two with how difficult it is to pick a front-runner.

Top-seeded Notre Dame of Hingham (14-4-2) showed it can beat just about anyone in the state, doing almost exactly that within the second-toughest strength of schedule. The Cougars are deep and allowed exactly one goal per game behind a top defense and goaltender. If it can find its scoring touch, it’ll be very difficult to beat them.

Right alongside them, though, is a No. 2 St. Mary’s (18-3-1) group that split the season series with NDA. The Spartans even took it to overtime in their first game missing one of their top players, and the new-look defense impressed head coach Frank Pagliuca enough to feel comfortable heading into the tournament. Paired with freshman standouts Bella Freitas and Alyssa Norden, St. Mary’s will also be difficult to beat.

Lower-seeded but just as dangerous is No. 5 Hingham (16-5-1), which has two potent lines – led by 100-goal scorer Caroline Doherty. Its defense is young, but have more than held their own against the fellow top teams in the state. A double-overtime away from the Final Four last year, the Harborwomen, too, will be difficult to beat.

We could do this for a dozen more teams. Reigning champion No. 7 Shrewsbury (11-4-5) could meet the Spartans for a rematch in the state quarterfinals, posing a real threat to repeat if it can crank up the offense. Deep No. 4 Malden Catholic (13-3-4) also split the series with NDA with a loaded defense, and chalk would lead to an epic showdown with Hingham.

No. 6 Methuen/Tewksbury (14-4-2) allowed just as few goals as NDA despite playing in arguably the state’s top league. No. 3 Lincoln-Sudbury (17-2-1) won that MVC/DCL Large league and is capable of much more. Eighth-seeded Pope Francis’ record (12-7-2) is deceiving, with its two ties coming to St. Mary’s and Malden Catholic. Any team that can beat Div. 2 power Duxbury garners respect, which can also be said about Malden Catholic and No. 10 Bishop Feehan (10-9-3).

The list goes on. Eleventh-seeded Archbishop Williams (9-10-2) struggled through a tough schedule at first but has since rounded into playoff form. No. 9 Peabody/Lynnfield/North Reading (16-4) and No. 13 Winthrop (13-3-2) are well-coached with the talent to grit out a few gutsy wins. Never count out No. 12 HPNA (8-9-3), No. 15 Andover (7-9-3), No. 19 Billerica/Chelmsford (6-9-5) or No. 20 Westford Academy (7-10-3) from the MVC/DCL Large to, at the very least, play heartbreaker. No. 14 Belmont/Watertown (13-2-3) led Div. 1 with a 0.83 goals allowed per game. No. 16 Braintree (9-9-3) and No. 18 Boston Latin (16-4-2) have signature wins under their belts.

Div. 2 seems less dicey down the list of teams, but we also said that two years ago before a 22nd-seed made the Final Four and the 10th-seed beat the ninth-seed for the state title.

Right now, top-seeded Duxbury (19-3) is the clear-cut favorite to repeat its state title. Premier scoring weapons are all over the roster, and teams haven’t been able to get much past Anna McGinty as the Dragons lead the state in goals allowed (0.77). Keeping their focus with a huge target on their back hasn’t been much of a problem so far, and many of them already showed poise last year to go the distance.

Nobody is unbeatable, though, and quite a few teams have made a habit of proving that.

Second-seeded Falmouth (19-2-1) has as dangerous of an attack as anyone after leading the state in goals scored, averaging a touch under five per game (4.95). No. 3 Burlington (17-1-2) is a giant-killer, using premier defense and goaltending to split with Malden Catholic, and handed both Falmouth and Belmont/Watertown their first losses. No. 4 Nauset (17-2-1) is right behind Falmouth in scoring with its own array of threats, using a well-rounded team to dismantle a bevy of Div. 1 threats.

Don’t count out No. 5 Algonquin (13-6-1) or No. 6 Longmeadow (11-4-1) from the Final Four conversation at the least. Two-time reigning finalist No. 7 Canton (17-4-1) didn’t have it against Duxbury in the regular season finale, but a collection of signature wins makes its seeding seem low. No. 9 Milton (17-4-1) has an elite goalie in Lila Chamoun and No. 8 Pembroke has an elite scorer in Jen Birolini – each could be difference-makers toward a run.

No. 10 Westwood (13-5) and No. 13 Sandwich (10-10-2) built momentum in the second half of the regular season to pose a threat. With the right support around Kelly Holmes, No. 15 King Philip (14-8) could be dangerous. Opponents need to be careful against pesky Patriot League teams.

PREDICTIONS

D1

Champion: No. 5 Hingham

Final Four: No. 1 NDA Hingham, No. 3 Lincoln-Sudbury, No. 5 Hingham, No. 7 Shrewsbury

Sleeper: No. 8 Pope Francis

Potential Upset: No. 19 Billerica/Chelmsford over No. 14 Belmont/Watertown

Best First-Round Matchup: No. 16 Braintree vs No. 17 Needham

D2

Champion: No. 1 Duxbury

Final Four: No. 1 Duxbury, No. 3 Burlington, No. 5 Algonquin, No. 7 Canton

Sleeper: No. 9 Milton

Potential Upset: No. 13 Sandwich over No. 4 Nauset

Best First-Round Matchup: No. 8 Pembroke vs No. 25 Whitman-Hanson/Silver Lake

Players To Watch:
Ivorie Arguin, Pope Francis
Ava Baker, Malden Catholic
Jen Birolini, Pembroke
Chloe Bryda, Bishop Feehan
Ava Buckley, PLNR
Lila Chamoun, Milton
Izzy Cusack, Canton
Caroline Doherty, Hingham
Isa Fischer, Burlington
Bella Freitas, St. Mary’s (L)
Harper Friedholm, Lincoln-Sudbury
Kelly Holmes, King Philip
Ava Larkin, NDA (H)
Anna McGinty, Duxbury
Risa Montoya, Shrewsbury
MJ Petisce, Methuen/Tewksbury
Sienna Reeves, Nauset
Casey Roth, Falmouth
Eva Surette, Braintree
Julianna Taylor, HPNA