Boys hockey tournament preview: Powerful field leaves titles up for grabs
Boys hockey coaches might want to get their hearts checked now to make sure they’re up for what’s about to come.
The state tournament is bound to reflect much of the parity that kept us guessing this year. There’s a bit of a shared joke on how difficult it would’ve been for the Super 8 selection of old to decipher a deserving top-10, leaving little doubt how chaotic this year’s tournaments – especially Div. 1 – could be.
St. John’s Prep (17-3) rightfully earned the top seed for a third year in a row. Its discipline, depth and late-game execution helped it just about run through the Catholic Conference – which locked three of the division’s top four seeds. Definitively, the Eagles are the team to beat.
Yet, head coach Kristian Hanson knows how little that means in this tournament.
“I think hockey is the most difficult sport to win a state championship in because of the level of competition, the amount of teams that are capable of winning it,” he said. “You can just go down the list, but there are several high-end D1 hockey teams in the tournament. … We know how much work there is to be done.”
It says enough that Marshfield (16-3-3) – which won the Ed Burns Coffee Pot Tournament’s higher division and mostly outplayed Xaverian – is seeded 10th. It says even more that Franklin (13-8), despite four wins against top-10 teams, is 12th. That doesn’t mean they weren’t seeded correctly, but more how close the field is.
There’s plenty to believe in at the top, as SJP, defending champion No. 2 Pope Francis (16-5), No. 3 Catholic Memorial (13-4-3), and two-time reigning finalist No. 4 Xaverian (15-4-1) each showed they have the makeup from the net-out to win a state title. It just wouldn’t be a surprise if they didn’t with what’s coming after them.
A young No. 6 Arlington (16-3-3) showed how dangerous it is when it’s prepared. Senior-laden No. 5 Archbishop Williams (16-4-1) is 4-1 in overtime and has mostly kept big games close. Playmakers are all over the ice for No. 7 Reading (15-5-1) or No. 8 Hingham (13-7-2) to advance deep.
That’s not even including a bevy of teams outside the top 10 that have shown capability of playing heartbreaker, so we could see some fireworks even in the second round.
To a slightly lesser degree, much of the same exists in the other three divisions.
Top-seeded Tewksbury (17-3) allowed Div. 2’s second-fewest goals per game (1.75) while it scored the most (5.45). It makes for a good bet to win their second title in three years, but reigning champion No. 2 Canton (15-4-2) might have something to say about that in a potential rematch of the 2022 state final.
No. 3 Concord-Carlisle (16-4) has a leading top line itself. No. 4 Woburn (12-5-1) and No. 6 Billerica (9-7-2) matched up well in Div. 1-heavy league title races. Fifth-seeded Newburyport (16-4-1) even went 3-1-1 itself against some of the best in Div. 1.
Last year’s upsets showed you can’t sleep on the Tri-Valley League, and No. 7 Norwood (14-3-3) has only gotten stronger. Much of the same can be said of the Patriot League. Seeds 10-20 are all dangerous, especially No. 10 Duxbury (10-8-4), No. 11 Boston Latin (12-8), No. 12 Gloucester (10-8-2) and No. 15 Masconomet (13-7).
After a tough out in the final seconds last year, top-seeded Nauset (18-1-1) has felt like the team to beat in Div. 3 since the preseason. If a current 15-game win streak doesn’t back up that claim, two one-goal wins over reigning finalist No. 3 Scituate (15-5-2) surely does. Another meeting between the two is quite possible at TD Garden.
No. 8 Pembroke (11-5-4) and No. 9 Grafton (12-5-1) are serious sleepers, but the rest of the top threats right now come from the North. No. 2 Shawsheen (19-1) hasn’t lost since the opener. No. 4 Lynnfield (10-9-1) and No. 5 Essex Tech (12-7-1) loaded up their schedules to prepare for deep runs. No. 6 Marblehead (12-9-1) flipped an 0-6 start to enter with confidence, while No. 7 Triton (11-9) showed moments of big-game prowess.
No division has nearly as many teams with 12-plus wins seeded outside the top 10 as Div. 3 (15 teams), which will be interesting to look out for.
Winthrop head coach Dale Dunbar believes he runs more 4-on-4 practice than anyone after his team went to overtime in each of the first two rounds of last year’s Div. 4 tourney. It was upset in the second. The top-seeded Vikings (15-3-2) feel battle-tested and confident to ensure that doesn’t happen again as the skilled favorite.
A third-straight postseason matchup wouldn’t happen until TD Garden for reigning champion No. 3 Norwell (15-5-1) and 2022 champion No. 4 Sandwich (17-4-1), which very well could develop. No. 2 Nantucket (15-4-1) looks to get back to early-season dominance for a return to the Final Four, while No. 5 Dover-Sherborn (16-4) navigated the larger TVL schools with poise to make a potential run.
Dunbar says Winthrop doesn’t look at records at this point, which nobody should with No. 7 Wilmington (6-12-2) and No. 10 Stoneham (8-11-1) threatening out of the loaded Middlesex League. No. 6 Hanover (11-9) is always well-coached to pose danger. No. 8 Martha’s Vineyard (9-9-2) and No. 9 Medway (11-9) shouldn’t be taken lightly. All but one team seeded 11 through 22 has double-digit wins.
Buckle up, everyone.
PREDICTIONS
D1
Champion: No. 1 St. John’s Prep
Final Four: No. 1 St. John’s Prep, No. 3 Catholic Memorial, No. 4 Xaverian, No. 10 Marshfield
Sleeper: No. 12 Franklin
Potential Upset: No. 24 Braintree over No. 9 Westford Academy
Best First-Round Matchup: No. 13 St. John’s (S) vs No. 20 Central Catholic
D2
Champion: No. 2 Canton
Final Four: No. 1 Tewksbury, No. 2 Canton, No. 3 Concord-Carlisle, No. 5 Newburyport
Sleeper: No. 12 Gloucester
Potential Upset: No. 19 Whitman-Hanson over No. 14 Algonquin
Best First-Round Matchup: No. 15 Masconomet vs No. 18 Hopkinton
D3
Champion: No. 3 Scituate
Final Four: No. 1 Nauset, No. 2 Shawsheen, No. 3 Scituate, No. 5 Essex Tech
Sleeper: No. 8 Pembroke
Potential Upset: No. 21 Nashoba over No. 12 Somerset Berkley
Best First-Round Matchup: No. 15 BVT vs No. 18 North Middlesex
D4
Champion: No. 4 Sandwich
Final Four: No. 1 Winthrop, No. 2 Nantucket, No. 3 Norwell, No. 4 Sandwich
Sleeper: No. 10 Stoneham
Potential Upset: No. 18 Abington over No. 15 Bourne
Best First-Round Matchup: No. 14 Lunenburg/Ayer-Shirley vs No. 19 Littleton/Bromfield
Players To Watch
Anthony Amato, Norwood
Chris Cardillo, Sandwich
Jay Carter, Concord-Carlisle
Matthew Cooke, Tewksbury
Mike Corbett, Catholic Memorial
Chase Darcey, Shawsheen
Chris Hanifan, Reading
Evan Jones, Arlington
Mossy Kearney, Pope Francis
Finn Kelly, Archbishop Williams
Cam McGettrick, Marshfield
Ben Paterson, Franklin
Logan Poulin, Nauset
Cole Pouliot-Porter, Xaverian
Travis Rugg, Hingham
Petey Silverman, Winthrop
Griffin Starr, Nantucket
James Sullivan, Scituate
Brendan Tourgee, Canton
Jake Vana, St. John’s Prep