Red Sox mailbag: What would it take for this team to win 90 games?

Spring training is usually a time for hope and optimism, but these days Red Sox fans aren’t exactly seeing rays of sunshine.

With camp officially opening this week, we asked for your questions about the club and the upcoming season, and the response reflected the overwhelming sense of frustration that’s permeating the fanbase. People are upset and increasingly disillusioned, but there also remains a kernel of hope and curiosity.

Even after everything that’s happened, fans still want to believe there’s something worth looking forward to.

So in this week’s mailbag, we’ll try to dive deep into this team’s ceiling and long-term outlook, along with more straightforward spring issues like who could comprise the starting outfield and what realistic expectations are for Boston’s top prospects.

There’s been tons of deserved negativity this offseason so let’s try to be optimistic. Tell me why the Sox win 90 games this year. — Paul Z.

I love this question. We’ve all become so conditioned to expect the worst with the Red Sox that it can sometimes be hard to imagine what things could look like if things actually go right. So, what is a best-case scenario for this team and how could we get there?

First, Trevor Story gets back to his old Colorado form and delivers both a Gold Glove season at shortstop and a Silver Slugger season at the plate. He tops 30 home runs and an .850 OPS, becoming the right-handed thumper the Red Sox need in the middle of the lineup. That protection helps Rafael Devers enjoy a monster season as well, and Story’s range eliminates the need for Devers to make the tough plays to his left he’s always struggled with, helping him become more reliable at third defensively. Triston Casas and Masataka Yoshida both improve in their second full MLB seasons, with Casas topping 30 homers for the first of hopefully many times.

Boston Red Sox first baseman Triston Casas, right, celebrates his home run with Trevor Story during the sixth inning of a game against the Los Angeles Dodgers last summer at Fenway Park. (Staff Photo/Nancy Lane/Boston Herald)

New outfielder Tyler O’Neill also stays healthy and turns in a season more like his career-best 2021, when he hit 34 home runs and finished eighth in the NL MVP vote. Jarren Duran hits 40 doubles and steals 30 bases, Wilyer Abreu and Vaughn Grissom both emerge as legit starters, and Ceddanne Rafaela makes a real push to earn a spot for himself.

As for the pitching, Brayan Bello takes a big leap forward and establishes himself as an ace. Lucas Giolito gets back to his Chicago White Sox level and posts a 3.50 ERA over 200 innings. Nick Pivetta keeps pitching like he did in the second half last year, putting himself in line for a big contract on the free agent market. Kutter Crawford, Garrett Whitlock and Tanner Houck all enjoy career seasons, with whoever ends up in the rotation making 32 starts and topping 160 innings.

With the starting rotation pitching at a high level and consistently going deep into games, Alex Cora is able to line up his top relievers in the late innings much more regularly. Kenley Jansen tops 30 saves, Chris Martin remains elite and the club’s other high-leverage guys consistently get the job done. We never have a situation where a depth arm like Kyle Barraclough has to eat 10 runs over four-plus innings because there was nobody else available to take the mound.

Meanwhile, while the Red Sox enjoy a resurgence, the club’s AL East rivals start encountering unexpected setbacks. Tampa Bay takes a step back with its starting rotation still decimated by injury and Wander Franco unavailable for the forseeable future. Toronto stagnates as some of its older players begin to decline, and some of New York’s big additions fall flat, leaving the Yankees as good but not great. Even the Orioles, who look like a juggernaut, endure some growing pains as its young roster continues to acclimate to the majors.

Nothing I just described is completely unrealistic, and in all likelihood quite a few of these things will go right. The problem, obviously, is quite a few more things could potentially go wrong, and with few meaningful offseason upgrades there’s no reason to expect a major turnaround is imminent.

Still, we’ve seen worst-to-first turnarounds before, so it’s not that crazy to imagine this club could wind up surprising a few people.

What is the Red Sox long term plan for success? — Tony B.

We’ve been hearing for almost five years how the Red Sox aspire to build towards sustainable success. In some ways they’re getting close but in others they still have a long way to go.

So, what exactly is the plan?

We’re already seeing parts of it come to fruition. Casas has reached the majors and looks like a middle of the order cornerstone. Bello has established himself as a major league starter and Connor Wong should factor into the catching situation for the foreseeable future. The quartet of Whitlock, Houck, Crawford and Josh Winckowski all have at least two years of experience under their belts and the Red Sox are banking on them making the leap as well.

Others like Rafaela, Abreu and the newly-acquired Grissom will get their first real shot this season, and next year we should see the arrival of top prospects Marcelo Mayer, Roman Anthony and Kyle Teel. If all goes according to plan, those players — along with Devers, Story and Yoshida, who each have four or more years remaining on their deals — will form the core of the next great Red Sox team.

What hasn’t panned out is the club’s pitching development. Besides Bello, Boston’s young pitchers haven’t progressed at the rate anyone hoped for. If we’re being honest, people wouldn’t be as irate about Boston’s lack of urgency in addressing the rotation if Whitlock or Houck were coming off a season like Bello just had. The club has made rectifying that weakness its top priority this winter, and if those efforts pay off then it won’t just be the Whitlocks and Houcks who benefit, but the low level arms who come out of nowhere to become real studs.

That’s the plan, and in theory it’s not a bad one. What’s frustrating is the way ownership is pushing a false binary where short-term investments and long-term sustainability are presented as mutually exclusive, effectively branding the club’s unwillingness to spend as being fiscally responsible.

Sure, this year’s club probably isn’t going to win a World Series title, but signing a proven starting pitcher to a multi-year deal would help in both the short and long term. Even adding another bat on a one-year deal could help drum up excitement, and getting out of the AL East’s basement and back into the playoffs as a Wild Card would help reestablish a winning culture and expose the young guys to postseason baseball.

Hopefully that becomes part of the plan at some point, too.

Who is going to be the ace since they traded Chris Sale to the Braves? — Eric G.

Bello should be the Red Sox’ best starting pitcher this season, but as we’ve learned over the years, being the No. 1 on a staff isn’t necessarily the same thing as being an ace.

When you think of an ace, you think of someone like Pedro Martinez in his prime or Chris Sale pre-injury, a guy who takes the mound every fifth day and dominates. An unquestioned leader who commands respect from his teammates and opponents alike. Someone whose start dates you circle on the calendar.

Bello wasn’t at that level last year, but he has all the tools to get there.

Ceddanne Rafaela, left, of the Boston Red Sox talks with Brayan Bello in the dugout before an Aug. 28 game against the Houston Astros at Fenway Park. (Matt Stone/Boston Herald)

There’s no question Bello carries himself like an ace. He took it personally when he was optioned to the minors early last season and made sure it wouldn’t happen again. He came through on the biggest stages, consistently dominating the Yankees while also pitching gems against the Astros, Braves and eventual World Series champion Rangers. He’s drawn rave reviews from teammates, coaches and from the Hall of Famer Martinez himself.

What’s still missing is the consistency. Bello finished with a 4.24 ERA in large part because of the 6.94 ERA he posted in 10 day games, and because of the two eggs he laid in his final starts. That isn’t going to cut it, but if Bello can take the next step and pitch to his full potential every time out, he could become the ace this club needs him to be.

Because if it’s not him, it probably won’t be anyone.

What will the starting outfield be on Opening Day? — Richard P.

The safe bet is O’Neill in left field, Duran in center and Abreu in right with Yoshida as the primary DH, but that alignment is hardly set in stone. By all accounts Rafaela is going to get a real chance to earn the starting center field job, and if he wins it that could have interesting ramifications everywhere else.

Duran would presumably bump over to left field, but would he platoon with O’Neill there or would he be an everyday starter? Could we see O’Neill and Abreu platoon in right? What if O’Neill outplays Duran and Abreu and locks down a spot for himself? Is it possible we might see a rumored Duran trade come to fruition?

Usually it’s not a good idea to draw too many conclusions from spring training exhibitions, but who plays in which outfield spot — and when — will be something fans should monitor closely as the games get going.

Where do you see Roman Anthony, Marcelo Mayer and Kyle Teel getting in 2024 level-wise? — @RedSoxMiLB

I think all three will finish the year in Triple-A, though I wouldn’t rule out the possibility they could make a late-season cameo in the majors.

Virginia catcher Kyle Teel waits for a pitch during an NCAA game on Saturday, June 10, 2023 in Charlottesville, Va. A top Red Sox prospect, he’s off to an excellent start to his pro career. (AP Photo/Mike Caudill)

Each has already reached Double-A and should start the season in Portland, and by midseason I think there’s a realistic chance all three will have a chance to earn a promotion to Worcester. Of the three I think Mayer has the best chance of getting there first. He played more than two months with the Sea Dogs and while he spent much of that time battling injury, he acquitted himself nicely on defense and earned rave reviews from his coaches.

As far as reaching the majors though, I actually think Teel has the best chance to play a role in 2024. He’s the oldest at 22 and came to the Red Sox organization unusually polished for a new draftee. He also has the clearest lane to playing time, because if the Red Sox are out of it in September and Reese McGuire is having a replacement-level season, it wouldn’t be hard to imagine Boston giving Teel an audition much like Connor Wong received in 2022.

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