BUFFALO vs. MINNESOTA

When: 7 p.m. Thursday
Where: Huntington Bank Stadium
TV: FS1
Radio: KFAN, 100.3 FM
Weather: 69 degrees, clear skies, 8 mph south wind
Betting spread: Gophers, minus-18

History: Head coach P.J. Fleck’s first game at Minnesota was a 17-7 win over Buffalo in 2017. The U won its only other previous matchup against the Bulls, 41-17, in 2002.

Big question: Can Buffalo pull off an upset as a three-score road underdog against a Big Ten foe? After a 9-4 season in 2024 — second-most wins in school history — a seasoned Bulls squad is picked to finish fourth in the Mid-American Conference this fall. But they failed last last year’s test against a Power Four opponent: Missouri 38, Buffalo zilch.

Stat: Minnesota has won 69.5% of its season openers, while Fleck has won 62.5%. He has losses to North Carolina (2024), No. 4 Ohio State (2021) and No. 18 Michigan (during pandemic-delayed season in 2020).

Key matchup: Gophers linebacker Maverick Baranowski vs. Buffalo running back Al-Jay Henderson. Gophers defensive coordinator Danny Collins called the 6-foot, 216-pound Henderson “the best player on their team.” Henderson put up 1,316 scrimmage yards and 10 total touchdowns in 2024.

Who has the edge?

Gophers offense vs. Buffalo defense: Redshirt freshman QB Drake Lindsey’s first collegiate start will come against a veteran defense. The Bulls have nine returning starters and “looked like the best defense in the (MAC) coming out of spring,” one MAC assistant coach told Athlon Sports. … Offensive coordinator Greg Harbaugh’s ability to get Lindsey into a flow will be key in his full-fledged debut. A running game from Darius Taylor will be foundational. … Stud linebacker Red Murdock amassed 156 tackles and seven forced fumbles last season and will have a bigger role with MAC defensive player of the year, LB Shaun Dolac, now in the NFL. … The Gophers will have two new offensive tackles this season and they will face an immediate test from DE Kobe Stewart, who had 30 pressures, per Pro Football Focus, and led the MAC with 9 1/2 sacks last season. The Bulls also have a lot of D-line experience around him, too. … Stunts have given the Gophers’ O-line fits early in seasons, so expect a steady dose of that from the Bulls. … Transfer WRs Javon Tracy (Miami of Ohio) and Logan Loya (UCLA) should be reliable targets for Lindsey. EDGE: Gophers 

Gophers defense vs. Buffalo offense: Nomad transfer QB Ta’Quan Roberson takes over at Buffalo after stints at Penn State, Connecticut and Kansas State. His one significant stretch of playing time came at UConn in 2023, where he completed 58% for 2,075 yards, 12 touchdowns and six interceptions in 11 games. … Elusive slot WR Victor Snow is the No. 1 target and will be a handful for the Gophers’ new stable of CBs. Za’Quon Bryan is expected to start, while John Nestor, Mike Gerald (and perhaps Jaylen Bowden) will split time at the other CB spot. “(Snow is) a guy that can take the top off the defense, smaller guy, but he’s electric,” Collins said. … Buffalo was much better on the ground (52nd in nation last year) than through the air (110th). … DE Anthony Smith, who had a team-high 6 1/2 sacks last year, will likely be matched up on the Bulls inexperienced right tackle Gabriel Arena, who struggled in pass protection in his limited playing time a year ago. … Minnesota will need to stop the run and force Roberson to beat them through the air; the U’s ability to take a lead and force long down-and-distance situations will aid that cause. EDGE: Gophers 

Special teams: The Gophers and Bulls both replaced its placekicker and punter this season. Syracuse transfer Brady Denaburg is the front runner for Gophers’ kicker, while punter hasn’t been as clear cut. Ouachita Baptist transfer Tom Weston might be the starter. Expect sophomore standout Koi Perich to shine on punt and kick returns after putting up 502 yards last year. EDGE: Gophers 

Prediction: The Gophers have gotten off to slower starts the last two years — 13-10 win over Nebraska in 2023 and a 19-17 loss to North Carolina in 2024 — but they avoid another letdown to a MAC school (see: 14-10 loss to Bowling Green in 2021). Gophers win 28-16.

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